Commentary on fish meal fertilizer consumption amount estimation by Google Gemini

Introduction

The estimation

Table 1. Google-Gemini-estimated Consumption Amounts of fish meal fertilizer in Japan through decades

Year	Amounts [tons]	Backgrounds
1890	200k-250k	The herring fishing industry in Hokkaido was at its peak. Herring meal was sent nationwide. Source: 農商務統計表　第一次
1910	350k-400k	Demand is peaking with the expansion of cultivated area.
1936	460k	The peak of fish fertilizer production before the war. Source: 肥料年鑑　昭和12年版
1950	150k	The post-war confusion and the start of increased production of chemical fertilizers (ammonium sulfate). Source: 肥料年鑑　昭和25年版
1967	80k	Chemical fertilizers became mainstream, and fish fertilizer was limited to high-grade fruits and tobacco. Source: 肥料年鑑　昭和45年版
1990-nowadays	Less than few 10k	The majority was converted to “feed (bait).” Fertilizer use sharply decreased.

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